July 12, 2026 · comparison
On 12 July 2026, before either semi, we locked eight prediction boards: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Grok — each once on a fast / cheap model tier, once on a max-reasoning tier.
Same three games. Tools and web search allowed either way — but no betting odds. After the final on 19 July, we score both boards and ask: does the heavy model buy better football picks, or is it expensive vibes?
The three games
France vs Spain
Dallas Stadium
England vs Argentina
Atlanta Stadium
SF winners
NY / NJ Stadium
Third place (18 Jul) is not scored. Finalists must match each model's own semi winners.
Board A
FAST — cheap / fast model
Fastest tier (Mini Light, Flash, Haiku-class, etc.). Tools and non-odds web OK.
| Model | SF1France–Spain | SF2Eng–Arg | FinalScore | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | France 2–1 | England 2–1 | France 2–1 · Eng | France |
| Claude | Spain 2–1 | Argentina 2–1 | Argentina 1–0 · Spain | Argentina |
| Gemini | France 2–1 | Argentina 2–1 | Argentina 2–1 · Fra | Argentina |
| Grok | Spain 2–1 | Argentina 1–0 | Spain 2–1 · Arg | Spain |
Board B
DEEP — max reasoning
Highest-reasoning / “think hard” tier. Same info rules: research OK, no betting odds.
| Model | SF1France–Spain | SF2Eng–Arg | FinalScore | Champ | vs FAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | France 2–1 | England 2–1 | France 2–1 · Eng | France | Same |
| Claude | France 2–1 | England 2–1 | France 2–1 · Eng | France | Changed |
| Gemini | France 2–1 | Argentina 2–1 | France 2–1 · Arg | France | Changed |
| Grok | France 2–1 | England 2–1 | France 1–0 · Eng | France | Changed |
Locked 12 Jul · before either semi
Cheap models disagree. Heavy models converge on France.
- ChatGPT — DEEP = FAST (identical board).
- Claude — FAST≠DEEP (Argentina path → France path).
- Gemini — FAST≠DEEP (same semis; final flips Argentina → France).
- Grok — FAST≠DEEP (Spain path → France path).
Settings
What “fast” and “deep” meant
ChatGPT
- Fast
- GPT-5.4 Mini Light · web OK, no odds
- Deep
- GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra · high reasoning + web
Claude
- Fast
- Haiku 4.5 · low effort
- Deep
- Fable 5 Max · web + extended thinking
Gemini
- Fast
- 3.1 Pro (Low) · Planning Mode
- Deep
- 3.5 Flash (High) · Planning Mode
Grok
- Fast
- Single-pass snap · no tools
- Deep
- Deliberate second pass · no odds
After 19 Jul
How we score
Correct winner
01+1 per match (SF1, SF2, Final). ET counts; pens = that side wins.
Exact score
02+2 bonus per match (reg + ET score; ignore pen digits).
Then compare
03FAST board · DEEP board · Δ (DEEP − FAST) · mean FAST vs mean DEEP.
Why bother
Everyone argues about reasoning models in the abstract. Here the unit is public and rude: three scores on a calendar. Same constraints, two compute regimes, one tournament clock.
If DEEP wins, interesting.
If FAST ties or beats DEEP, also interesting — and cheaper.
Results after the final whistle.
Related: the context rocket equation — why every LLM turn is a full relaunch of your payload — and the API cost calculator if you want numbers on “thinking harder.”